Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,687 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball; NFL futures. Here’s the context on each.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 43–49. We’re down 11.80 units. We’re up to five straight wins, but we’ve been betting mostly moneyline favorites lately.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. So far, we’re up a bit more than five units. This is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected total return on the 150 units of 10.28 units, or 3.4%.
UNLV @ Colorado State
The thing we’ve mostly been doing during our little win streak is looking for favorites we don’t think will get upset. This fits that bill. UNLV’s been playing better lately, Colorado State’s been playing worse, and Colorado State still checks in as a moderate (7ish-point) favorite tonight. We expect a little regression compared to recent trends. We expect the Rams to get it done and stay on track. It’s a small payout, but we’re chipping away at our deficit and finding things that work. This next month is key for our college basketball season, and every little bit helps.
Pick: Colorado State to win –305. Low confidence.
AFC
We were hoping for better value on the Texans and Packers, since we’re so heavy on the Ravens and Niners, but it just isn’t there. So, we’re getting heavier. We’re leaving ourselves open to doom tomorrow this way, but our NFL futures portfolio is a small one, and if just one of the Ravens and Niners win, we should still be in a completely fine position. Nine units on the Ravens on the AFC side, and…
Pick: Baltimore to win +115. Low confidence. x9
Super Bowl
…seven units on San Francisco to win the Super Bowl.
Pick: San Francisco to win +175. Low confidence. x7
