Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 800 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 10% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Furman @ Wofford
Wofford does tend to slow things down, and while Furman’s defense isn’t excellent, it’s better on the perimeter than inside.
Still, these offenses are better than this line implies, even with a low possession count (65?). Wofford’s defense is rather uniformly bad. It might be a slow game, but it should be an efficient one offensively.
Pick: Over 135.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Siena @ Canisius
There are elements of Siena’s game that could give Canisius trouble. The Saints get to the free throw line with some frequency and perform strongly on the glass. Canisius’ guards, though—Malik Johnson and Armon Harried in particular—should cause Donald Carey, Matt Hein, and Jordan King a lot of problems when it comes to controlling the ball. It’s a close matchup, and Siena’s narrowly the better team, but Canisius’ advantage from having the game in Buffalo pushes it towards the Golden Griffins.
Pick: Canisius +1 (-110). Low confidence.
