Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,594 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
THREE picks today. Look out, everybody.
Michigan State @ Illinois
I’m not sure Illinois is turning it around, but I’m sure the narrative is behind on Michigan State, who has yet to beat anyone better than a fellow bubble team. Tom Izzo’s a winner, but this should turn into a conference crash landing.
Pick: Illinois -6 (-110). Low confidence.
VCU @ Dayton
Can Dayton make VCU play Dayton’s pace and still struggle offensively? We think so. That’s kind of what Dayton’s been doing to everyone in the A-10.
Pick: Under 130 (-110). Low confidence.
Utah State @ Nevada
Shouldn’t be many stops in this one. It’s going to be all about pace. And it should be a lot of fun.
Pick: Over 143.5 (-110). Low confidence.
