Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,671 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball; NFL futures. Here’s the context on each.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 33–41. We’re down 9.72 units.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. So far, we’re up a bit more than five units. This is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 17.26 units, or 5.8%.
Nebraska @ Iowa
We’re taking on too much water right now to do anything besides this tonight on the college hoops front. We like Iowa to get a nice win in front of its home crowd while Nebraska returns to earth and drops to 1–3 on the road. This feels like a regression game for both teams, and we like the price for a small-unit bet. It gives us something if we win, in addition to hopefully getting back on track.
Pick: Iowa to win –195. Low confidence.
AFC
We’re already heavily in on the Ravens, but with units to spend, we’re putting eight on them in the AFC market this week. Our thinking here is that some level of chaos this weekend is decently likely, and if it happens, it’ll give them good enough odds that if we want to hedge out of this next week, we can. We think this is mispriced, and that the odds on the Ravens to win the AFC will shorten after this weekend’s games.
Pick: Baltimore to win +125. Low confidence. x8
NFC
We have a similar thought here, though part of this is balancing the Cowboys bet we’re about to place. Five units on the Niners, on whom we’re not as heavy as the Ravens but are still heavy.
Pick: San Francisco to win –135. Low confidence. x5
Super Bowl
Here’s the shot downfield. We like the Cowboys’ value a lot, and we also like their path. Mike McCarthy to get another ring? Sign us up for that as a value play.
Pick: Dallas to win +800. Low confidence. x3
