Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 792 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 10% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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(TBD) picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Penn @ Princeton
This is the second contest between Penn and Princeton in a seven-day span. In the first, the total finished at 142, held back by the teams shooting a combined 5-34 from beyond the arc. Neither is a great shooting team, but both are better than that. Expect more points today.
Pick: Over 144.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Note: The above pick was published earlier than the below picks due to the game’s early tip-off.
Canisius @ Monmouth
Canisius and Monmouth, though not particularly good teams, both do a good job of forcing turnovers. Monmouth is decent at protecting the ball themselves, but Canisius is not. Golden Griffins games feature a high ratio of possessions to field goal attempts.
This isn’t the reason to take the under—the reason is that the numbers bear it out—but combining two bad offenses with mediocre defenses and tossing in the fact Canisius’ biggest offensive weakness should be heartily exploited, this is one of the better plays around tonight.
Pick: Under 144 (-110). Low confidence.
Butler @ Providence
There’s no question that Providence has been better in its last four games than it was in its first twelve. The road overtime victory over Marquette was surprising, and stoked the flames on a team that’s suddenly a bubble contender after looking dead to the world midway through December.
Providence should obviously be valued more highly than they were entering their blowout of Texas. I’m not one to dispute that they’re a better team than they appeared. But Butler is one of the ten best teams in the country. Possibly one of the five best, if you trust KenPom (and I do). Their defense is a force, their offense gets the job done, and have yet to suffer much of an “off night.” Perhaps that changes tonight. If it doesn’t, though, the favorite should take care of business. Even if it’s close.
Pick: Butler -1.5 (-105). Low confidence.
