Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,796 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 76–62–1 and we’re down 6.23 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Dayton @ VCU
If Dayton hadn’t lost at Richmond, we’d like them less here. They did lose that game, though, and they’ve since rallied, a development which included winning on the road this week at Saint Joe’s. Dayton’s exactly what you want in a strong mid-major: They’re better than everyone in their league by enough to always be a road favorite, but they’re still taking everybody seriously.
Pick: Dayton to win –125. Low confidence.
San Diego State @ Nevada
We’re going with the road team here as well. We don’t trust Nevada and think they’re probably overvalued after playing so well in Logan on Tuesday night.
Pick: San Diego State +2 (–105). Low confidence.
