Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,779 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. Still no Super Bowl move(s).
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 64–58 and we’re down 9.50 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Ohio State @ Iowa
Is tonight the night Ohio State finally wins a road game? Probably not. Until they show it, we’ll especially bet against them in these kinds of situations.
Pick: Iowa to win –250. Low confidence.
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton
This is hairier. The market isn’t giving Dayton the lean we’d expect. In the end, though, we think the Bonnies cooling off is more likely than the Flyers sliding into a funk. We’ll roll with our approach.
Pick: Dayton to win –325. Low confidence.
