Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,690 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Air Force @ UNLV
Full disclosure: I don’t love this. But UNLV can get running, and UNLV has a lot more to play for than Air Force does. Also, UNLV’s been playing better than a three-game losing streak sounds. We take them to get a nice one tonight.
Pick: UNLV -9 (-108). Low confidence.
Nevada @ Fresno State
This one’s also scary, but we have some faith in Nevada. They’ve quietly become a solid team over there. That program gets it done.
Pick: Nevada -3 (-110). Low confidence.
