Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,880 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both its single-day and futures markets.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 97–72–1 and we’re down 4.97 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We’re starting these today. Our portfolio will have 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before all conference tournaments are over. For the moment, we’ll only be placing and posting these on weekdays.
Yale @ Cornell
We don’t believe Cornell’s all that different a team from Yale and Princeton. We think we’re all just not quite as used to Cornell being good right now. We expect the Big Red to get the job done at home tonight, and to at least briefly return to first place in the Ivy League.
Pick: Cornell –2 (–115). Low confidence.
Princeton @ Harvard
Over in Cambridge, we believe Harvard’s capable of the upset, but we expect Princeton to be focused on this one with Dartmouth the team on deck tomorrow. Princeton looked great against Yale on Saturday, and we’re taking that as something that matters. They’re playing good ball.
Pick: Princeton to win –250. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
We will probably get to a point where we bet on teams other than Houston, Purdue, Arizona, and UConn to win the national championship. We aren’t at that point yet, though. Everyone outside those four comes with enormous doubts, to the degree where we’re not comfortable taking them at all. So, with three of those four available at better than a 20% eROI, we’re happily hopping on all of them, starting to lay some foundation for this portfolio.
In the Final Four market, by contrast, we’re comfortable taking just about anybody if the eROI is there. Today, the top four teams, by eROI, are Wake Forest, Duke, Houston, and Illinois.
We aren’t going to double up on Houston today, so we’ll save that option for Monday. We do, though, love both Wake Forest and Duke, and we like Illinois.
What we love about Wake Forest is that they’re currently a bubble team but they’re unlikely to finish as a bubble team. Their issue is Q1 wins, but they have three Q1 opportunities in their final five regular season games, and kenpom has them favored outright in two of those and less than a one-point underdog in the third. Then, there’s the ACC Tournament, where they might open with yet another Q1 opportunity against Clemson in the quarterfinals. Wake Forest should make the NCAA Tournament, and should end up as something like an 8 or 9-seed. You don’t often find teams that good at 40-to-1 to make the Final Four.
With Duke, we like that they’re the current ACC Tournament favorites in the eyes of our model. Kenpom grades them as being a little bit better than UNC right now. Do we buy them overall? No, but doing so wouldn’t be outrageous. They’re in the top 25 on kenpom in both offense and defense, checking that box, and they’ve mostly taken care of business this season, even if they lack huge wins. It’s possible to make a Final Four without huge wins. A likely 2 or 3-seed at +650? Give that to us. (We think Bracket Matrix underrates Duke’s 2-seed chances partly because Duke is likely to rise in the AP Poll and thereby the committee subconscious, getting to play a lot more ACC competition the rest of the way than Iowa State, Tennessee, or Marquette.)
We don’t love Illinois, but we don’t hate them either, and buying them after a bad road loss feels good. We’re a tiny bit lower on them than Bracket Matrix, and our model still likes their value at this price. Again, we don’t need to trust teams to take them to make the Final Four. That’s only a requirement in the NCAA Tournament market. (A wish, really. We’re going to struggle to resist Baylor if they’re still at 75-to-1 on Monday.)
Pick: Houston to win NCAA Tournament +850. Low confidence.
Pick: Purdue to win NCAA Tournament +850. Low confidence.
Pick: Arizona to win NCAA Tournament +1400. Low confidence.
Pick: Duke to make Final Four +650. Low confidence.
Pick: Illinois to make Final Four +950. Low confidence.
Pick: Wake Forest to make Final Four +4000. Low confidence.
