Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 866 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Princeton @ Harvard
With Yale’s loss at Penn last weekend, Harvard and Princeton are both very much alive in the Ivy League regular season race. Yale’s still the favorite, sitting at 6-2 and getting Princeton at home next week, but Princeton’s tied, and Harvard’s just a game back, with one win already over Yale and the next matchup back in Cambridge.
Tonight’s game, then, is a big one, and it might be surprising to see such a large line between two teams so close in the standings. Princeton’s recovered well after their 1-7 start to the year, taking care of business every step of the way since, with the exception of a dud at Cornell earlier this month. The three-point shooting has improved, and Richmond Aririguzoh’s offensive presence inside has been a key one.
Why, then, is Harvard such a favorite? Taking away the home-court advantage, this drops to something like a five-point line. And Harvard is, judging by all we’ve seen, more than five points better than Princeton. Yes, they lost the last head-to-head, but by only a point, on the road. All their conference losses have come by one possession. They have impressive wins at Yale and San Francisco. They aren’t Tommy Amaker’s best team, but they’re his best in a few years, and with Chris Lewis and Robert Baker a forceful defensive pairing, they’re as well-equipped as anyone in the Ivy to neutralize Aririguzoh. Including Yale.
Pick: Harvard -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Oakland
On Saturday, UW-Milwaukee allowed 94 points to Green Bay. The game did span 78 possessions, a high number, but even accounting for that, that’s a lot of points. Still, the Panthers have one of the better defenses in the Horizon League, one that not long ago held Youngstown State, Wright State, and Northern Kentucky—three of the league’s four best offenses—below a point per possession over an eleven-day stretch. Oakland isn’t going to run the floor like Green Bay did, and while the Grizzlies’ defense is more suspect than that of their guests, it gets a respite tonight against a Milwaukee offense that struggles to score consistently.
Pick: Under 139.5 (-110). Low confidence.
