Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,864 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Only college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 87–67–1 and we’re down 4.55 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Villanova @ Georgetown
We’re taking a little shot. Villanova has been terribly unreliable, and Georgetown is not without talent. We don’t think Georgetown will win, but we think the value is there, and that’s enough to take the shot.
Pick: Georgetown to win +460. Low confidence.
New Mexico @ San Diego State
New Mexico is a very good Mountain West team, but coming off a huge weeknight victory this week, we don’t see them doing enough to beat the team to beat. Give us the Aztecs here to, ideally, keep us profitable on the season after Georgetown gets us back across that line.
Pick: San Diego State to win –280. Low confidence.
