Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 857 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 8% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Columbia @ Dartmouth
The two worst offenses in the Ivy League are matching up, with Dartmouth trying to get its first conference victory and make the last place experience a shared one with their guests.
The total’s too low on this as it stands, and while it’s hard to pin down exactly why, here are two things to consider:
The first: Each time Dartmouth’s been in a sub-63 possession game this year, it’s been against an opponent within the slowest national quartile when it comes to adjusted tempo. Columbia plays on the fast side of average, lessening the risk that this total’s held back by an anomaly tempo-wise.
The second: Each defense has struggled in Ivy League play to a greater extent than they struggled in the non-conference portion of the season. Expect Jack Forrest to get a lot of open looks for Columbia, while Aaryn Rai takes advantage of clearer paths for Dartmouth.
Pick: Over 131.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Denver @ South Dakota State
While South Dakota State is the vastly better team tonight, and the possibility of a blowout is real, it’s more likely than not that Denver will cover.
Denver stays within the arc. It forces teams to beat it from outside, and it forces the issue inside when it has the ball. South Dakota State’s splits are such that its expected points per possession are lower on threes than twos offensively, and on the defensive end, Denver shoots few enough threes already that the Jacks’ noteworthy perimeter defense won’t have much to defend. Denver, in all reasonable likelihood, won’t win. They likely won’t even keep it close. But again, a cover is more likely than not.
Pick: Denver +14 (-110). Low confidence.
