Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,657 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Saint Louis @ Dayton
Dayton’s struggled to figure things out this year, but they’re a noticeably better team than SLU, and they’ve had some runs this year of really rolling teams. I don’t know if a full run of that will start tonight, but we like the Flyers to cover this number.
Pick: Dayton -5 (-108). Low confidence.
Fresno State @ Nevada
Is it a trap game for Nevada? Maybe. But this late in the season, we like the Wolf Pack to be ready and to take care of a Fresno State team which has been all over the place this year, but pretty darn bad at their worst.
Pick: Nevada -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
