Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,459 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,603 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
World Cup futures, college basketball plays, the FCS playoffs. For context on the World Cup portfolio: We started with fifty units in our World Cup bankroll. So far, we’ve profited by 4.5 units and we have four more units pending. That’s all before today’s plays.
2022 World Cup
There’s value available on Portugal, so we’ll take it, with our four outstanding plays all being on quarterfinal underdogs. After that, though, we’re doubling down, and we’re taking a little shot on Croatia because of how good the value is. If Croatia somehow gets past Brazil today, we’ll have plenty of hedging in store.
Pick: Portugal to win World Cup +650. Low confidence.
Pick: England to advance to semifinal +115. Low confidence.
Pick: Croatia to win World Cup +5000. Low confidence.
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Columbia
Fairleigh Dickinson just shockingly upset Saint Joseph’s on the road, beating the Hawks 97-80 over in Philadelphia. It’s the kind of result that can shake up impressions of a team, but it’s just one result. Don’t expect an 81%/63%/50% FT/2P/3P split tonight from the visitors.
Pick: Columbia +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Lipscomb @ Alabama A&M
If you’re feeling really spicy here, take the AAMU moneyline. Alabama A&M has great numbers from three, and perimeter defense has been an issue so far for Lipscomb. We are not feeling particularly spicy. Got that out of our system with Croatia above.
Pick: Alabama A&M +10 (-110). Low confidence.
Samford @ North Dakota State
William & Mary @ Montana State
Incarnate Word @ Sacramento State
We feel good about the Montana State play based on where Movelor has that game. We feel good about the Sacramento State play based on the thought that G.J. Kinne pulling double duty at UIW and Texas State has to be worth at least a point or so. With North Dakota State, the spread has stretched further than our comfort zone, but hitting on a medium-confidence bet around these odds will cover our deficit if we split the other two, and it’s hard to see any believable scenario where Samford pulls off the upset in Fargo.
Pick: Montana State -9 (-110). Low confidence.
Pick: Sacramento State -6.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Pick: North Dakota State to win -1000. Medium confidence.
