Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,230 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Southeastern Louisiana @ Cal Baptist
Southeastern Louisiana played Cal Baptist on Wednesday, also in Riverside. The Lions (that’s SELA) won, 81-80, but to do that, they had to shoot 50% on threes, while the Lancers (that’s Cal Baptist) shot 28%. Both were unusual performances, offensively and defensively, but don’t expect the bounce-back to be as big as this line indicates. Games aren’t only decided on threes, and performances in single college basketball games do shape our understanding of teams’ and players’ ability. Yes, Cal Baptist is the better team, and the deserved favorite at home. But they aren’t this much better.
Pick: Southeastern Louisiana +9 (-110). Low confidence.
Detroit Mercy @ Michigan State
Michigan State’s coming off a big win. Detroit Mercy’s playing its first game of the season. It should be a blowout. It probably will be a blowout.
But how big will it be? It’s hard to say. The tempo could get away from Detroit. That’s the risk. But at the same time, the team’s debuting a transfer-heavy lineup that’s expected to be in the mix for second place in the Horizon League (at the moment, Wright State’s the clear favorite there). On the Michigan State side, while Tom Izzo might be viewing this with earnestness, there’s no guarantee his team is. It’s scary to parse numbers on blowout lines, but this is one of the better plays available.
Pick: Detroit Mercy +26.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wisconsin @ Marquette
It’s the first test of the year for a much-hyped Wisconsin team. Senior-heavy, the Badgers certainly remember the losses to Marquette two and three years ago, as well as the vindicating romp across the second half of last season’s game. Wisconsin’s looked the part of a good, experienced team so far, producing clean, comfortable wins over three low-majors to open the year.
Still, Marquette’s probably undervalued here. There’s value to playing at home that goes beyond the crowd, even against an in-state opponent. Marquette has plenty of talent. The Oklahoma State loss wasn’t great, but it wasn’t like the Pokes came in and blew the doors off the place. It’s not hard to see Koby McEwen getting himself a dozen free throw attempts, Marquette getting Wisconsin out of its preferred pace, and this game coming down to the wire. It’s narrow, but on a tight board, this is one of the best we’ve got.
Pick: Marquette +4 (-110). Low confidence.
