Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,943 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.7% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
College football first (no hedging—banking on at least one of Alabama/Georgia to win), then one college basketball pick.
Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinnati
Over the history of the College Football Playoff, only four of the fourteen semifinals have been two-score games or closer. So while SP+ is high on Cincinnati, and while I do think there might be value in a Cincinnati/Under parlay, this is probably the right play.
Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-116). Low confidence.
Orange Bowl: Michigan vs. Georgia
Again, these games just don’t tend to be that close. Also, don’t overweight Georgia’s SEC Championship performance. It’s a notable data point, but it isn’t the only one.
Pick: Georgia -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Gator Bowl: Rutgers vs. Wake Forest
First off, sticking with our theory that head coaches’ bowl records are overvalued by the market, Dave Clawson does not have the historic bowl success of Greg Schiano. Secondly…Rutgers didn’t know it was going to play until quite recently and Wake Forest loves to score points.
Pick: Wake Forest -17.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Sun Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Washington State
Jim McElwain’s 2-2 all-time in bowls, Jake Dickert’s coaching his first bowl game. We count larger sample sizes as better records in this method, but that’s a rather arbitrary choice. Hurting Washington State’s cause is that they’re kicking off at 9:00 AM Pacific Time. Helping its cause is that it’s the better team.
Pick: Washington State -7 (-110). Low confidence.
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High Point @ Kentucky
I don’t think Kentucky’s all that poorly-valued by the market, but High Point might be a bit undervalued, and it doesn’t have anything to do with Tubby Smith making his return to Lexington today. With it an early game on New Year’s Eve between two teams not known for making shots, and with High Point’s slow pace, and with Kentucky’s best scoring path—second-chance points—naturally one that takes longer, this seems likely to hang closer to 25 than 30. It’s tight, but these are the bets we like to take.
Pick: High Point +27.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
