Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,543 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Bowls and basketball:
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Maryland vs. NC State
Mike Locksley won his only career bowl game so far as a head coach, last year’s Pinstripe Bowl. Dave Doeren is 4-3, which is technically the worse record, and has us in on NC State.
Pick: NC State -2 (-110). Low confidence.
Sun Bowl: Pitt vs. UCLA
Pat Narduzzi is 1-4 on his bowl career. Chip Kelly is either 2-1 or 2-2, depending on whether you include the 2010 season’s National Championship Game.
Pick: Pitt +9 (-110). Low confidence.
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina
Marcus Freeman and Shane Beamer each made their bowl debut last year, Freeman losing the Fiesta Bowl while Beamer won the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Look for each to get to .500.
Pick: Notre Dame -4 (-111). Low confidence.
Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs. Wyoming
Tim Albin has never coached a bowl game before. Craig Bohl is 3-1.
Pick: Ohio -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Clemson
Talk about an orange bowl!
Sorry.
Josh Heupel is 1-3 career in bowls. Dabo Swinney is 5-3 if you don’t include playoff games, and 11-7 if you do include them.
Pick: Tennessee +4.5 (-112). Low confidence.
Buffalo @ Michigan State
Buffalo plays fast. Michigan State plays slow. We’ll trust the better team to control the tempo here.
Pick: Under 149.5 (-110). Low confidence.
New Orleans @ Houston Christian
Yesterday, we asked why the market and KenPom are so far apart on The Citadel, having picked The Citadel a lot this year. Today, we’re asking it of Houston Christian. We don’t have a good answer, but the why doesn’t really matter. What matters is that the discrepancy is there.
Pick: Houston Christian +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
