Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,408 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
First off, apologies for not getting you the World Cup future this morning. We owe you two tomorrow, and we think you’ll get them, because we think we’re getting healthier again in the arena of (redacted: too much information).
Second. Speaking of things we’ve owed you: College football futures. We started these, fell behind, and are now needing to tie a bow on them. We’re just going to hedge these into a no-downside world and then see what we have when the playoff field is set. Plays for that are at the bottom.
Now, let’s get into tonight’s college basketball plays, plus one conference championship pick that is not a futures hedge.
Pitt @ NC State
I know you shouldn’t make too much of Pitt’s beatdown of Northwestern, but you can make something of it, right? And while NC State had those nice wins over Dayton and Butler, Dayton and Butler aren’t exactly looking like surefire tournament teams. KenPom’s got this line at seven. We’ll go with our guy.
Pick: Pitt +9.5 (-108). Low confidence.
Eastern Kentucky @ James Madison
James Madison plays fast, forces turnovers, and makes baskets. Eastern Kentucky plays fast and its opponents tend to take (and make) a lot of three-point shots. The line of thinking on this total is correct, but the magnitude is a step too far. Lot of action here, hopefully creating some opportunity.
Pick: Under 158.5 (-108). Low confidence.
Conference USA Championship
UTSA only beat North Texas by four when the two played in the regular season, needing last-minute heroics to counteract the last-two-minutes heroics of the Mean Green (which had counteracted the last-three-minutes heroics of the Roadrunners – apparently a great game). We like the Roadrunners to make it less close here, and part of this is how high the total is. With the over/under clocking in around 70, the expectation is for the endzone to take on a lot of traffic, and there’s an element to that which can stratify the final score.
Pick: UTSA -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
ACC Championship (Hedge)
Pac-12 Championship (Hedge)
Of the twelve futures we placed this year in college football (intended to be twelve of fifty or so we’d have placed by now, but here we are instead), one is on Georgia to win the national championship, and we’re going to worry about it later. Of the other eleven, seven have already lost. Of the other four, two are on Utah to win the Pac-12 (+240 and +250), one is on Michigan to win the Big Ten (+400), and one is on UNC to win the ACC (+1800). In other words, we had a phenomenal weekend last weekend and didn’t even realize it was happening.
We’re going to bank on Michigan taking care of business against Purdue, which isn’t a sure bet but is enough to stake this small portfolio on. We’re then going to put four units on USC and ten units on Clemson to win tonight and tomorrow, respectively, putting us in a position where Utah could gain us a twentieth of a unit and UNC could gain us a little more than five units, but we’re profiting no matter what on this early stage so long as Michigan or UNC wins.
To be clear: We aren’t sure these are good or bad value. They’re hedges. We aren’t taking them as anything other than hedges.
Pick: Clemson to win -285. Low confidence. x10
Pick: USC to win -140. Low confidence. x4
