Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,925 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We’re taking the next three days off, and while we haven’t seen a line on Syracuse/Brown for Monday, we’re banking on it not being too advantageous (especially given how college basketball’s been going lately for us). Just the bowls, then, of which there will be three before we see you again:
Camellia Bowl: Georgia State vs. Ball State
The head-coach-with-the-better-bowl-record approach, to be transparent, hasn’t worked. So, be warned. We knew going in there was possibly only a 50/50 shot at it working, and we were trying to find out its general success rate without doing real research, so we’re ok with this, but be warned. Mike Neu’s 1-0 in bowls, Shawn Elliott’s 2-1.
Ball State +6 (-115). Low confidence.
Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Nevada
Coaching transition for Nevada, but Tim Lester’s 0-2. Best hope here is that the early-morning kickoff’s being overrated as a factor by the market.
Nevada +7 (-115). Low confidence.
Military Bowl: Boston College vs. East Carolina
Neither coach has coached a bowl game before, so we’ll revert to SP+ on this one, which is rather close to the line, but…this is entertainment, after all.
East Carolina +3 (-110). Low confidence.
