Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,519 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Bowls and basketball:
Louisiana vs. Houston
Dana Holgorsen is 3-6 lifetime in bowl games. Michael Desormeaux is 1-0, having coached last year’s New Orleans Bowl, possibly with the interim tag still on? Either way, Holgorsen’s is the worse record, and our experiment still indicates that makes Houston a worthwhile play.
Pick: Houston -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Wake Forest vs. Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz has been the head coach of three previous bowl-bound teams, but in only one of those seasons did he actually coach a bowl. In 2019, he left Appalachian State before the New Orleans Bowl was played. In 2020, the Music City Bowl was canceled by Covid. Only last year’s Armed Forces Bowl found Drinkwitz on the sideline. He lost. Dave Clawson, meanwhile, is an even 4-4 on these in his career.
Pick: Missouri +2.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Iona vs. Seattle
Some Hawaiian action here, where we like Seattle to slow the game down, especially by extending possessions with offensive boards.
Pick: Seattle +8.5 (-106). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 148 (-120). Low confidence.
