Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,271 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball; college football; college football futures. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 21–27. We’re down 8.03 units, and we’re 1–14 over the last 15 days. I’m not sure how we’ve come to do this badly, but here we are.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 77–81–3. We’re down 8.16 units. We are up a little bit (+0.88 units) on FBS bowl games. So there’s that.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 22 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
Marist @ Notre Dame
Attendance figures to be beyond low for this one, which should take a little bite out of Notre Dame’s home-court advantage. Marist is off to a good start by win percentage, and while their schedule has been one of the weakest in the country, they’re often winning by a lot. More than anything, Notre Dame is just bad. Micah Shrewsberry might have been correct when he pinned the blame on effort, but there’s also a big talent deficit in South Bend. Shrewsberry will get there in a few years, but the cupboard was bare, and we think this week might get worse before things get better (i.e., ACC play starts and losses become more palatable even if they’re more frequent).
Pick: Marist +5.5 (–105). Low confidence.
UCF vs. Georgia Tech
This is a system play—we’re betting every moneyline underdog until it starts going too poorly to justify it—but we do like the Yellow Jackets here. Both they and UCF are on the rise, but Georgia Tech has had higher to climb from preseason expectations, increasing the chance ratings systems are low on them.
Pick: Georgia Tech to win +200. Low confidence.
CFP National Championship
We’re back to Michigan in our futures effort, and this is the play we like most from the value standpoint. We don’t like it enough to center our whole portfolio around it, but in combination with other plays, we’re amassing some good pieces. Setting ourselves up for a comeback.
Pick: Michigan to win +200. Low confidence. x8
