Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 752 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Akron vs. Tulane
Following Toledo’s loss Tuesday at UMKC, Akron took over the title of MAC favorite. It’s a thin title—the MAC tournament is a tough format—but it’s noteworthy nonetheless, especially with the MAC one of the stronger mid-major leagues this year. John Groce (yes, the old Ohio and Illinois coach) has a senior-heavy crew that plays stifling defense, gets to the free throw line, and converts from distance. That team is more likely than the rest of the MAC to play nationally significant games in March.
The Zips won’t have it easy in D.C. today against Tulane. The Green Wave is among the nation’s stingiest when it comes to yielding free throws, and they’re a better team offensively than almost all of Akron’s opponents thus far. Still, with Tulane’s struggles against the three, and with Akron simply being a better, more experienced team, this line is far too low.
Pick: Akron to win (-210). Medium confidence.
North Dakota State @ Marquette
Marquette is a good basketball team. Markus Howard is a very good basketball player. North Dakota State might still be missing Sam Griesel, with Jared Samuelson also potentially out. Still, the Bison are giving more points than the numbers would suggest.
Pick: Marquette -12.5 (-110). Low confidence.
