Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,487 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Bowls, the first FCS semifinal, and college hoops:
Bahamas Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB
Last year, we did an experiment that led us to believe head coaches’ career records in bowls are not only weighted by the market, but weighted in the wrong direction. Last year, the coach with the poorer bowl record covered more often than not. Chuck Martin’s 1-2 in bowls. Bryan Vincent’s never coached one. We’re rolling with the loser.
Pick: Miami +11 (-105). Low confidence.
Cure Bowl: UTSA vs. Troy
Jeff Traylor, for all his success, is 0-2 in bowls. Jon Sumrall is coaching his first. Again: The loser.
Pick: UTSA -2.5 (-113). Low confidence.
FCS Semifinals: Incarnate Word @ North Dakota State
Movelor only has this line at 6.6, but we’re picking against it, and this is why:
Incarnate Word is an offensive force, playing ridiculously up-tempo football with high success. Their defense, on the other hand, is paper thin. 38 points to Furman in the second round. 63 to Sacramento State in the quarterfinals. North Dakota State should run right through this defense and, in one of the loudest FCS environments, get enough stops to win by two possessions.
Pick: North Dakota State -8.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Bethune-Cookman @ Incarnate Word
We are UIW’s greatest haters.
Naw, we just think Bethune-Cookman’s better. And better by enough to win this on the road.
Pick: Bethune-Cookman +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Delaware @ Princeton
Princeton’s outperforming expectations, and while Iona ended their eight-game win streak on Tuesday, they were close in that game too. Expect the Tigers to start a new streak tonight, and with no games as an underdog until January 28th (as things currently project), expect that streak to grow some legs.
Pick: Princeton -6.5 (-108). Low confidence.
