Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,220 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,257 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball play, and our daily college football futures action is covering the FCS semfinal tonight. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 20–21. We’re down 2.94 units, and we’ve lost eight picks in a row.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down a little more than 40 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
New Mexico @ New Mexico State
New Mexico beat NMSU by 44 points two weeks ago tomorrow, a performance NMSU followed up with a five-point escape from Northern New Mexico on Tuesday night. UNM’s playing great ball, and they’ve been blowing out plenty of teams besides the Aggies. We’ll give them a shot to break our losing streak.
Pick: New Mexico –14.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Albany @ South Dakota State (Hedge)
We’re putting 18 units on this, and it’s only to win one. The value’s not great, but it isn’t terrible (eROI: –2%, rounded), and we’re in a spot with our futures portfolio where every unit helps. If Albany springs the upset tonight, we’ll still be in a great spot on the FCS side if NDSU beats Montana tomorrow and a fine spot if Montana beats NDSU. If SDSU wins tonight, as we expect, we’ll move every scenario up a unit.
Pick: South Dakota State to win –1800. Medium confidence. x9
