Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,892 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.5% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Loyola @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s bad, Loyola’s good. These are facts, and even removing the conference-based relativism surrounding them doesn’t make Vanderbilt the better team. Loyola’s a deserved favorite.
Still, Loyola’s got three key contributors (Braden Norris, Aher Uguak, Ryan Schwieger) sick right now, and while Scotty Pippen’s sick for Vanderbilt, the absence of word on other players down there implies the Rambler outbreak might be worse than that of Vandy. We aren’t basing the bet on that—we’re basing the bet on Vanderbilt not being this bad, independent of everybody’s health—but it’s an encouraging angle.
Pick: Vanderbilt to win +170. Low confidence.
DePaul @ Louisville
This isn’t great value, but DePaul shouldn’t be expected to seriously challenge Louisville, flawed though the Cardinals may be. This doesn’t really factor into the pick, but it’s noteworthy that this is DePaul’s first game away from home. They haven’t even played at a neutral site yet. Not a guarantee, but a fairly safe play overall.
Pick: Louisville to win -340. Medium confidence.
