Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 945 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Baltimore @ Washington
It seems like I’m missing something here. My numbers say twelve. The total’s at nine. There’s the possibility of some rain, and the wind might be blowing in at four or five miles per hour in the later innings, but…
It’s Tommy Milone and Aníbal Sánchez, at Nationals Park in August. Juan Soto’s back healthy. Rio Ruiz is back healthy.
I am very confused, and I hope I’m not missing something obvious.
Pick: Over 9 (-105). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Texas
Jordan Lyles has pitched for the Rockies, Padres, Brewers, Pirates, Brewers again, and now the Rangers—all since 2017. Considering he originally came up with the Astros in 2011, the list is actually even bigger, and looking at how much he swung between the rotation and the bullpen while making the NL rounds, his career has lacked any sort of consistency in every sense of the word.
And he’s only 29.
Lyles isn’t the pitcher he was expected to be when Houston took him with the 38th overall pick out of high school in 2008. But in a new ballpark that’s looked fairly average so far, if not actively pitcher-friendly, he’s capable of keeping this close against a spotty Angels lineup.
Pick: Texas +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Seattle
It is very early in the season, but Matt Kemp and Daniel Murphy are stroking it for the Rockies. Through two weeks, the pair of 35-year-olds have a combined wRC+ of 150, providing some support for Trevor Story’s bull-rush out of the gate.
Kemp and Murphy’s wOBA’s both outpace their xwOBA’s, meaning they should expect some regression as their contact gets less lucky. Still, with Nolan Arenado yet to break out, the Rockies’ offensive results have been real as they enter the less charitable confines of whatever the Mariners call their park these days.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-190). Low confidence.
