Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,496 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the future come from Bovada because there’s no consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though:
Texas @ Oakland
Towards the end of last week, I explained that we were going to be pivoting strategically with our daily bets. Our post-trade deadline history was bad, but there was enough encouraging data to encourage trying a “can’t-lose” approach, meaning looking for teams that are highly unlikely to lose. We’ve now made ten such picks, and we’re 6-4 in them, needing to hit about a 75% clip to comfortably profit, and therefore being down about a unit. It’s possible this miss is a sample-size thing. It’s possible I’m not being tight enough with my “can’t-lose” definition. But I did notice, looking back at post-deadline bets, that the run line tracks more closely with the moneyline on these than it does with most bets, and that with the run line, you only need to hit 60% of plays to be comfortably in the black.
So, we’re going to take a shot on this one, knowing we’re about two or three lost units away from shutting down the daily bets until college football starts anyway (because the average ROI on these will be too close to even to risk it). We’ll see.
Pick: Oakland -1.5 (-130). Low confidence.
NLCS
The numbers like ‘em, and why not the Phillies? Their rotation’s in flux, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler give them strength at the front of it, and the lineup’s not great, but it’s about even with that of the Brewers, their most likely Division Series opponent should they make the field. And with that rotation, there’s some upside opportunity. If the Ranger Suárez experiment works, or if Kyle Gibson performs well, or on the other side if Freddy Peralta’s walks or innings catch up to him, the Phillies could conceivably enter the NLDS close to a favorite.
This is worth having in the portfolio.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +2000. Low confidence.
