Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,713 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we look heavily towards our own model.
Active markets today: MLB futures, MLB moneylines, single-game college football, a little IndyCar, and this week’s election futures, which we’re moving up to Fridays each week until further notice.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 151–129–3 so far this year, down 6.96 units. Over the last three-ish weeks, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 39–27, up 5.84 units. It’s gone well, but we haven’t been able to get over the hump yet and reattain profitability.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Single-game college football bets: Our history here is mediocre. We’re 2–2 so far this season, down 0.26 units.
IndyCar: Our published IndyCar history is very, very weak. Be forewarned. We have had private success betting ovals, but be forewarned.
Election futures: These have been our best market historically, with a 17% overall ROI and significant profits both times we’ve done them—in 2020 and 2022. We started this year with a 1,000-unit portfolio and a plan to bet it as a series of 20 mini-portfolios, each leveraged against itself. We’re still approaching it in that manner, with most mini-portfolios placed and published on Saturdays. So far, we’re up 18.50 units. Those are going back into the bets.
Boston @ Detroit
The approach we’ve centered on for these moneylines—the one that’s worked best—has been to use something we call “Heat Index.” It’s the gap between the hottest team in baseball over a recent stretch of time and the coldest. That recent sample is currently three weeks, and we base hotness and coldness off of a team’s wRC+ and FIP–. So far, Heat Index’s first choice is 17–5, up 6.05 units for a 28% average return. Today, it likes the Tigers, partly because Detroit’s played well lately (5th-hottest in baseball the last three weeks) and partly because of the Red Sox’ struggles (4th-coldest).
Pick: Detroit to win +100. Low confidence. (Houck and Mize must start.)
San Diego @ Tampa Bay
A week ago, we started trying Heat Index’s second choice as well. So far, it’s 7–0. It’s up 5.97 units, all by itself. We don’t believe it can stay undefeated in perpetuity, or that there’s something magical about being the second choice, but 7–0 is good, and we will keep trying to ride it. Today, it likes the Padres, who are only the 7th-hottest team in the game but play the 2nd-coldest, a Rays team hitting 35% worse than the MLB season average over the last 21 days.
Pick: San Diego to win +111. Low confidence. (Pérez and Bradley must start.)
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
A few days ago, we started trying Heat Index’s third choice. So far, not good. 0–3. The sample’s small enough that we’re going to try it again tonight, but we’re getting closer to deeming Heat Index a two-pick system.
Atlanta’s the hottest team in the game, pitching 35% better than average over our sample. The Phillies are a little colder than average, but this is mostly about their guests.
Pick: Atlanta to win +123. Low confidence. (López and Suárez must start.)
AL Central
Vinnie Pasquantino’s injury is a big deal. It’s the biggest deal for the Royals. It’s the second-biggest deal for the Guardians. It’s even a big deal for the Tigers, who still have some hopes of running Kansas City down even after failing to sweep the Angels yesterday. We’re focused on what it means for the Twins.
Despite losing five of their last six and eight of ten, the Twins are only three and a half games back in the division. A four-game set in Cleveland looms large in September. Between now and then, they play only three games against an opponent with a winning record. That opponent? The team they’d need to leapfrog to get back into the thick of the division race: The Kansas City Royals, newly without their everyday first baseman and three-hitter, the guy who hasn’t not occupied that spot in the lineup since June 10th.
The Royals aren’t dead, and we thankfully have a lot of upside on them as well.
But this is a good price on Minnesota.
Pick: Minnesota to win +450. Medium confidence.
AL East
This is also a good price on the Yankees. Did they fail to take advantage of the Orioles’ trip to Los Angeles, losing twice to the Nationals? Yes. That is a thing that happened. But New York still leads by two in the loss column, they’re a better team on paper, and if the picture doesn’t change, there’s only one playoff team left on their schedule. They play three games against the Orioles in the final week of the regular season. Those games are in New York. We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –165. Medium confidence.
TCU @ Stanford
TCU has played some high-profile, lower-scoring games in recent seasons. In their fire drill win in Waco in 2022, neither team topped 30. When they lost to Kansas State in that year’s Big 12 Championship, it took overtime for the winners to reach that number. In Austin against Texas, only 27 points were scored in total. Even last season, their near-upset of the Longhorns came with a 29–26 final.
The thing about these games, though, is that they were all close. 29–26 is a 55-point showing. The Baylor and K-State games also nearly reached 60.
The other thing about these games is that they were some of TCU’s lowest-scoring of those two seasons. Over the last two years—a good one and a bad one—19 of their 25 games have eclipsed the 50-point mark. 50’s not 60. But in the second year in Palo Alto for Troy Taylor’s amphetaminic offense, this game has the potential to go off the rails in a very exciting way. This should be a high-possession contest with a busy pair of endzones.
Pick: Over 59.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Hy-Vee Milwaukee Mile 250 Race 1
The deal with IndyCar ovals lately has been domination by Team Penske. They’ve won every oval race so far this year. They won every oval race but one last year. They won the majority of oval races in 2022.
This market has the lowest vig right now, from what we’re seeing available, so we’re betting it rather than betting on Will Power, Scott McLaughlin, and/or Josef Newgarden individually. The upside here is that if Team Penske does lose, we could still hit this bet, most notably through Pato O’Ward winning with his own Chevy engine.
Pick: Winning Car Engine – Chevrolet (–170). Low confidence.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election
We’re deep enough into building our overall election portfolio that we’re starting to look at ranges of scenarios. In both landslide scenarios, we’re very strong. With only roughly half our portfolio invested, we’re looking at a 14% return if Republicans get all the way to New Hampshire on the snake curve, and a 15% return if Democrats get 350 or more electoral votes. These are possible scenarios, but they’re not likely. The likelier scenarios are the ones in the middle.
In the middle, we have more of a mixed bag. We’re not in serious trouble anywhere, and in the very median scenario, we’re set for a 5% profit (again, that’s with only roughly half our portfolio invested). But, we want to cover every base in this middle, isolating us from a scenario where, say, Kamala Harris wins Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada but Donald Trump holds North Carolina and sweeps the Rust Belt swing states (PA, WI, MI) and wins the election.
We’re still putting a little on one longshot today—there’s actually arbitrage available on Florida right now—but for the most part, these are bets geared towards strengthening our results in that middle. As always, they each come with a positive EV based on Nate Silver’s model’s latest published data.
Four units each on Wisconsin and Florida. 20 units on Maine. 26 on North Carolina.
Pick: Democratic Candidate wins Maine –600. Medium confidence. x10
Pick: Democratic Candidate wins Florida +600. Medium confidence. x2
Pick: Republican Candidate wins North Carolina –170. Medium confidence. x13
Pick: Republican Candidate wins Wisconsin +130. Medium confidence. x2
