Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 996 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
A few more futures to close the week (odds for those come from Bovada, as usual), but first…
Los Angeles @ Texas
Mike Minor has struggled so far this year, with a 6.75 ERA on the top line and a better-but-bad 5.30 FIP underneath. He’ll get no break against the Dodgers, but in a ballpark that’s living up to its pitcher-friendly reputation, against a lineup that’s coming off a doubleheader and a long flight, it’s fair to take these odds on him to keep it close.
Pick: Texas +1.5 (+125). Low confidence.
Cleveland @ St. Louis
The back end of the St. Louis bullpen will be tired if it’s available at all, but besides that, there isn’t much to dislike about these odds, even if the Cardinals are coming off a disaster yesterday against the visiting Pirates. Theoretically, the back ends of bullpens are most important in close games, so the run line could be providing a bit more cushion than the moneyline, though I’d need to do more research to assert that with any confidence.
Pick: St. Louis +1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Colorado
In the middle innings, the wind should shift to blowing out at Coors tonight. Fernando Tatís Jr. is expected to be in the visiting lineup.
Pick: Over 11.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Futures
We talked about the Mets on Wednesday. The narrative with the Reds is similar, though without the gross organizational incompetence.
Cincinnati has looked great on paper and mediocre on the field. They have great starting pitching and a few solid pieces in an otherwise middling lineup. They’re playing in a division that lacks a potent force, which is to say they aren’t in the American League and they don’t have to deal with the Dodgers. After a massive jump in the standings yesterday (they gained two games on the Cardinals in only one day), their odds suddenly look very, very appealing.
Again, this is a similar blueprint to what we like about the Mets.
It’s also similar to what we liked about the Nationals last year.
Pick: Cincinnati to win NLCS +2200. Low confidence.
Pick: New York (NL) to win NLCS +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Cincinnati to win World Series +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: New York (NL) to win World Series +4000. Low confidence.
