Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,393 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
It’s Friday, so soccer futures in addition to the MLB ones. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line. We started both the Premier League and EFL Championship seasons with 50 units in those respective portfolios and 50 units in reserve for each, again for the purposes of potential hedging.
ALCS
Back to this pair. The value’s great, and each is now above 87% likely to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs, with the Rays in particular facing a chance to bury one of the four challengers in that race this weekend as they head to Boston. This pushes our median result down a little bit, but it raises our mean outcome to a 17% profit on what’s been placed so far.
Pick: Seattle to win +1600. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2000. Medium confidence.
Premier League
Could West Ham really be relegated in a season involving European play? It’s definitely not likely, but failing to score a goal through three league games is a bad sign, and it also is the beginnings of a hole out of which the Hammers will have to climb. Lose a few more and these odds will plummet. We’ll take them now.
Pick: West Ham to be relegated +900. Low confidence.
EFL Championship
QPR’s in a fine enough place so far, with a point per match through five matches. They’ve yet to play any of the league’s five best teams, though, and they’ve played more matches at home than away. These odds are long—we aren’t saying QPR’s a lock for League One—but they’re valuable. The Hoops join Swansea and Sunderland in the relegation corner of our portfolio.
Pick: Queens Park Rangers to be relegated +700. Low confidence.
