Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,093 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
One moneyline today, two futures. College football bets are coming tomorrow—both single-game picks and futures.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 83–57–4, we’re up 20.24 units, we’re up 14% (the average line on our winners has been –107). We enter today on a seven-game win streak.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 83.01 units, or 11.1%.
Texas @ Minnesota
I’m not sure what’s eating at the Twins’ odds here, whether it’s an overweighting of last night or an overestimation of the Rangers or an overestimation of the heat’s impact on the starting pitchers. The temperature isn’t outrageous, though, and Sonny Gray outmatches Dane Dunning. We’ll ride with this one, especially with decent upside for a home favorite.
Pick: Minnesota to win –123. Low confidence. (Dunning and Gray must start.)
ALCS
The Twins often flash as positive-value for us in this exercise, week over week and year over year. I think part of this might be their historic recent run without postseason success. Whatever the explanation, there’s value available on them, and we’re going to take it. Behind the Orioles and Red Sox, they’d pay us the most as an AL pennant winner.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1300. Medium confidence.
World Series
Yesterday, we got the Brewers at 28-to-1. Today, they’re available here. We’re going to take this one too.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +3300. Medium confidence.
