Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,687 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures and single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 142–120–3 so far this year, down 6.51 units. Over the last 15 days, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 28–17, up 6.29 units. Do that again, and we’ll be knocking on the door of season-to-date profitability by the second week of September.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Colorado @ New York (AL)
Heat Index won again yesterday, bringing it to 13–2 lifetime with a 5.47-unit return. These odds are very short—our average ROI is going to drop from 36% closer to zero no matter what the outcome in New York—but we’ve got the second-hottest team over the last three weeks playing the second-coldest, as measured by wRC+ and FIP–. That’s right in Heat Index’s wheelhouse.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –315. Low confidence. (Freeland and Rodón must start.)
Arizona @ Boston
We’re switching our second slot from Smallest Favorite to Heat Index’s second choice, or Heat Index 2. Smallest Favorite did great for us, going 9–6 and bringing home 2.36 units. We don’t believe it’s viable over the long term, though. Markets are too efficient for something as simple as “find the narrowest favorite” to consistently return money. We’re going to take our chips and go to another table. At this table, we’re testing out whether Heat Index can go two bets deep.
Pick: Arizona to win +114. Low confidence. (Nelson and Bello must start.)
Detroit @ Chicago (AL)
Our underdog-specific approach improved to 6–9 yesterday, and while it’s down 1.54 units, its run differential is a strong +7. Tonight, our approach points to the White Sox, who face a hittable pitcher in Keider Montero. No one likes betting on a 31–97 team, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be valuable.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +139. Low confidence. (Montero and Flexen must start.)
AL Central
Elsewhere in the AL Central, the Royals and Twins are both only two games back of the Guardians. The Guards should stretch that or at least hold it even this weekend—they host the Rangers; the Royals play the Phillies; the Twins play the Cardinals—but the Royals odds are the most valuable on the markets, and we’re adding two units on the Twins to keep from risking them becoming an unprofitable division scenario for our portfolio.
Our bets currently have a 29.25-unit swing between the Guardians and the Twins, and a 43.35-unit swing between the Guardians and the Royals. The AL Central is our highest-leverage division.
Pick: Minnesota to win +230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas City to win +550. Medium confidence.
