Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 977 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Detroit @ Cleveland
The Tigers have lost their last nine games. It wasn’t unexpected that they’d be an also-ran, but it certainly hasn’t been a fun week and a half, especially after they opened the year 9-5.
A phenomenon that developed around this time last year with these picks was run line underdogs losing. The untested hypothesis for this is that because these run line underdogs were often also-rans playing contenders, the difference in playoff leverage was making blowouts more likely through some sort of intensity gap. Again, this hypothesis is untested, and the raw numbers look good enough for the Tigers tonight that the intensity gap would have to be startlingly significant to make this a bad play, but it bears mentioning as the Tigers return to their expected habitat at the bottom of the division.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Boston @ Baltimore
The Boston bullpen got a break yesterday, with Nathan Eovaldi completing seven strong innings. Now, they get the whole game tonight, and while the Red Sox are bad this year, the Orioles are still the Orioles.
Pick: Boston -1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
After cruising through the first couple weeks of the season, the Rockies find themselves in the midst of the National League playoff race, within one game of the Padres, Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and…the Marlins.
It does appear fair to say that this team was initially underestimated, and there might be some reversion to that trend going on with today’s line. Jon Gray’s lone bad start came at Coors Field, and his FIP’s respectable enough that, combined with the Rockies’ bats and the low-scoring environment in Chavez Ravine, covering’s more likely than 50/50.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (+100). Low confidence.
