Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,391 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
It’s Friday, so soccer futures in addition to the MLB ones. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line. We started both the Premier League and EFL Championship seasons with 50 units in those respective portfolios and 50 units in reserve for each, again for the purposes of potential hedging.
NL Central
Doubling up, possibly for the last time on the Cardinals. This gets us to a spot where the only realistic scenario in which we wouldn’t profit on the division half of our portfolio is one in which the White Sox win the AL Central and we don’t get bailed out by the Yankees losing the East. That’s very possible—somewhere around 1-in-4—but it’s not all that likely, and even with that, we only lose a few units. Also, there’s a decent likelihood we get another chance to bet on the White Sox, helping close that gap.
The long and short is, the Cardinals and Brewers are now comparable options for us in the NL Central, and while that division has gone badly, the others have gone well enough that it shouldn’t hurt us. (We’re still anti-Cardinals for the sake of our postseason assortment, where we have units on the Brewers and don’t have units on the Cards.)
Pick: St. Louis to win -240. Medium confidence.
Pick: St. Louis to win -240. Medium confidence.
Premier League
Are people sleeping on Brighton? Possibly. The Seagulls finished ninth last year and they’ve begun this season strong enough. It’d be surprising to see them in next year’s Europa League, but Manchester United appears to be taking a break from the big six for the moment, and somebody has to fill that gap. This is the best value we can find today, and it gives us plenty of leverage for similar bets down the line within the market.
Pick: Brighton to finish top six +600. Low confidence.
EFL Championship
Somebody has to be relegated, and while Sunderland’s historically been a prominent club, they’re still just one year removed from playing in League One. So far, they’ve done little to show they’re much better than a League One club. These are long odds. We don’t think Sunderland is a relegation guarantee, or anything like that. There’s just value here.
Pick: Sunderland to be relegated +600. Low confidence.
