Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,666 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures and single-game MLB bets.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 130–111–3 so far this year, down 6.71 units. We’re trying three new approaches, something we started last Thursday. So far, that effort is 16–8, up 6.16 units. It’s still a small sample, but it’s been a nice eight days.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Chicago (AL) @ Houston
The first of our new approaches, Heat Index, has had the best results so far, and it’s also the one that makes the most sense. The concept is to measure how hot and cold teams have been, using recent wRC+ and FIP– as our thermometers, and to then bet the game with the biggest gap. We’ve seen evidence in past years that teams really do get hot and cold in August and September.
So far, the approach is 7–1, up 3.88 units for a 49% return. It continues today with another bet against the stupendously cold White Sox, against whom Heat Index is 4–1 so far. Will tomorrow be another bet on the Sox to lose? Maybe. The numbers are close enough that it depends what happens here and in this next one:
Pick: Houston to win –240. Low confidence. (Crochet and Arrighetti must start.)
Arizona @ Tampa Bay
The second of our new approaches has had almost equivalent results, but it makes much less sense. The concept is to bet the smallest favorite, on the basis that markets know who should be favored but sometimes err on the side of doubting themselves too much. The approach is 6–2 so far, up 3.54 units or 44%, but I’m personally skeptical it’ll last.
That said, the things I’ve thought might work haven’t tended to work this year, so maybe it’s a good thing that this bet makes me so uncomfortable. We do always love the Rays, but we adore the Diamondbacks right now, and so does Heat Index. This is the third-best play today per Heat Index. Make of all of this what you will.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –105. Low confidence. (Nelson and Pepiot must start.)
Toronto @ Chicago (NL)
The third new approach is a return to an old approach, but with a twist: We’re using our bet selection criteria from most of last year and from early this year, but we’re limiting ourselves to underdogs. The basis for this is that we think we got too cautious once we got in a hole this year, and that we missed a lot of the underdog value which helped us so much last year. The red flag is that our successful moneyline seasons have tended to fall off in August and September over the years.
So far, this approach is 3–6, down 1.26 units or 16%. We were going to shut it down if it lost on Wednesday, but it won, and then it won again yesterday afternoon. Interestingly, it does have a +5 run differential. I really don’t know what to make of all of this, but the short version here is that Kyle Hendricks has struggled, Yariel Rodríguez has been a quiet gem, and if we want to throw in a subjective criterion, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out and a 1.480 OPS since the All-Star break.
Pick: Toronto to win +103. Low confidence. (Rodríguez and Hendricks must start.)
NLCS
While we hate betting a moneyline against the Diamondbacks, that choice doesn’t preclude us from grabbing this futures value. It’s the best on the board, and with yesterday’s Dodgers loss, the gap is down to two games in the NL West.
Pick: Arizona to win +950. Medium confidence.
World Series
The second-best value is on the Padres in the World Series market, and their Dodgers gap is also down to two games. Our portfolio is heavy on San Diego and Arizona. The downside to this is that if Los Angeles holds on, as is likely, it’ll sting. The upside is that if Los Angeles holds on, as is likely, we’ll probably get a Padres/D-Backs matchup in the Wild Card Series, giving us the advantage of knowing we’ll enter the Division Series with one of our horses still running.
Pick: San Diego to win +1500. Medium confidence.
