Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 440 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Chicago (NL) @ Pittsburgh
It’s difficult to say whether Kyle Hendricks’ road struggles are significant. His ERA’s on the season—1.98 at home, 5.16 on the road—are misleading, but his FIP’s demonstrate a significant gap as well—just a smaller one: 3.27 at home, 4.68 on the road.
Over his career, the pattern holds up too: 3.37 FIP at home, 3.79 on the road; 21.9% K-rate at home, 20.1% on the road; 5.4% BB-rate at home, 6.1% on the road, 0.80 HR/9 IP at home, 1.00 on the road. While these gaps aren’t enormous, they’re noticeable, especially over Hendricks’ 900+ innings pitched. And while the home runs might shift depending on Wrigley Field’s climate, the walks and strikeouts, theoretically, shouldn’t be very different.
Kyle Hendricks might not actually be a worse pitcher away from Chicago. But he certainly isn’t a better one.
Pick: Over 9 (-110). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Philadelphia
Chris Paddack hasn’t drawn much attention lately. He hasn’t pitched poorly, but he’s put together fewer outings like the 11 K/1 BB/7.2 scoreless-inning he turned in against the Mets in early May. He is having a very good rookie year, though, and FanGraphs recently placed him in the top 30 of their annual Trade Value rankings (a list that, by its nature, gives preference to young players a long ways from free agency). And while he doesn’t figure to get many Rookie of the Year votes in a field that includes Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatís Jr., and Mike Soroka, he’s worth appreciating. So let’s do some appreciating.
Paddack’s 3.26 ERA ranks 15th among the 89 pitchers with 110 or more innings pitched on the season. And while that certainly overstates his performance, which has been boosted by pitching in Petco Park, his 4.10 FIP is 39th in the same sample. His .216 opposing BABIP leads the league, which is reflective of good luck/Petco Park, but his .215 XBA is in baseball’s top quintile, and isn’t far off of its .190 companion in real results, indicating the BABIP isn’t entirely driven by luck. Having never made a start above AA before 2019, he’s jumped into the thick of things and done so with success, placing his name in the growing list of reasons the Padres should feel as optimistic as ever about the future
Pick: San Diego to win (+105). Low confidence.
Miami @ Colorado
Sandy Alcántara’s placement on the All-Star roster was mocked. But while he wouldn’t have been chosen if the Marlins had better players, and while there were probably better options out of the players they do have, the impression that Alcántara isn’t very good is a false one.
To be clear, Alcántara isn’t a world-beater. His 4.87 FIP is 60th of the 70 qualifying starters. But he’s also 23 years old, he’s in the best quartile for average exit velocity, and he’s cut back on walks this season relative to his six 2018 starts.
Walks are still a problem (his 11.1% BB-rate is the second-worst for a qualifying starter), and it would be good if Alcántara were to climb out of the bottom ten in strikeout rate, but in his first full major league season, he’s posted some encouraging results. Between him, Caleb Smith, Sixto Sánchez, and the Marlins’ vast array of other starting options (José Ureña, Pablo López, Jordan Yamamoto, plus some fringier prospects than Sánchez), the Marlins 2020 rotation, while not necessarily destined for greatness, has a lot of upside.
Pick: Under 12.5 (-110). Low confidence.
