Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 963 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Doubling down on a few futures later, but first:
Tampa Bay @ Toronto (Buffalo)
Fun fact about Trevor Richards: Two years ago today, this blog’s editor dined next to what he assumes was Richards’s family (lot of Trevor Richards jerseys) before Richards allowed five earned runs in four and a third in Atlanta, beginning with the extension of Ronald Acuña’s home run streak.
Another fun fact about Trevor Richards: While he’s had some bad luck to start the year, his projections are still closer to his 5.79 ERA than his 2.33 FIP. Expect him to land somewhere in the middle.
Pick: Toronto +1.5 (-135). Low confidence.
Boston @ New York (AL)
The Yankees are banged up. The Red Sox bullpen is actually a better option for a full game than many of their starters, especially with Colten Brewer starting, and the Brasier/Brice/Workman/Barnes cohort available. Yes, the Yankees should be heavily favored. But favoring them this heavily is inviting bettors to take a shot. Play enough of these and you’ll end up positive.
Pick: Boston to win (+270). Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Philadelphia
If Spencer Howard doesn’t end up starting, well, this is a moot point. But if he does, expect him to perform better than he did in his debut Sunday, if for no other reason than that it’s unlikely he’ll allow multiple home runs again. Yes, he’s got work to do, but he’s still the Phillies’ top prospect—the tools are there.
Pick: Philadelphia +1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
Futures
As was said, doubling down on a few value plays:
Pick: Kansas City to win ALCS +25000. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win NLCS +1500. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win World Series +3000. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win World Series +1600. Low confidence.
