Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Baseball futures, soccer futures. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line. We started the season with 50 units in our EFL Championship futures portfolio, with another 50 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line. We started the season with 50 units in our Premier League futures portfolio, with another 50 in reserve in case we need them to hedge down the line.
EFL Championship
Some markets have finally moved on these odds, lowering them dramatically, and that’s enough confirmation of the possibility for us. The probability here is very low, but the value is very high, and this early in the season, we’re happy to let that be part of our portfolio.
Pick: Swansea City to be relegated +2000. Low confidence.
Premier League
Man U figures to add as the season goes on, and Brighton—who beat them last weekend—seems like they might be better than the market estimates. The value here, though, is undeniable. Man U would have to get a lot better to make these bad odds.
Pick: Manchester United to finish in the bottom ten +500. Low confidence.
AL Central
We’re taking a little bit of a risk here, riding the AL Central favorites rather than an underdog. This could end up looking expensive, and if the White Sox come back, it could put us down a few units, but the value’s there, and if just one of the White Sox and Twins fade, this will be a good chip for us. Where our profit/loss scenarios stand within the division markets now, assuming the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros/Mets all take care of business:
- Milwaukee/Cleveland: +18.01 units
- Milwaukee/Minnesota: +14.61 units
- Milwaukee/Chicago (AL): +11.71 units
- St. Louis/Cleveland: +2.22 units
- St. Louis/Minnesota: -1.18 units
- St. Louis/Chicago (AL): -4.08 units
Pick: Cleveland to win +140. Medium confidence.
NLCS
With no unique value, we’re going to do something akin to anchoring here, adding a little heft on the Mets in an effort to balance out our large liability on the Dodgers. Most of our NL team value comes in the World Series markets, which is good and bad. It makes our upside higher, but it roughly halves the probability.
Pick: New York to win +265. Medium confidence.
