Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,079 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and futures today. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 74–52–4, we’re up 17.77 units, we’re up 14% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 80.51 units, or 7.7%.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
Nothing on today’s board fits out parameters, so we’re reaching again, and this time we’re reaching to the Rockies. Austin Gomber has pitched well lately after starting the year off terribly, and while Lance Lynn’s had a good start to his time in Los Angeles, that’s mostly because the four home runs he’s allowed in his two starts have all managed to come with no runners on base. It’s unlikely to win, but we like the value.
Pick: Colorado to win +250. Low confidence. (Gomber and Lynn must start.)
NLCS
There’s value on the Brewers in the postseason for the first time since April, and we’re going to jump on it. They’re a better roster than the Cubs and they have the advantage in the standings, standings which award home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series to the NL Central champion. That’s not a small advantage, especially with the likelihood the NL’s 6-seed is someone like the Cubs, Marlins, Reds, or Diamondbacks. If the 3-seed avoids the Padres, Giants, and Phillies, that’s a good spot to be.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1600. Medium confidence.
World Series
Same deal here. The Brewers are valuable. The pitching helps the October value, too.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +3500. Medium confidence.
