Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,345 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Futures odds, as is almost always the case, are coming from Bovada due to the absence of a current, reliable Vegas consensus online. First, though:
Detroit @ Cleveland
The last time Cleveland faced Julio Teheran, they hit into two double plays at exit velocities over 105 mph and flew out at least once to one of the deepest parts of any park. That performance is likely warping perceptions of Cleveland’s offense, early as it is, not to mention holding hope aloft for an aging Teheran.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Futures
The first two series of the year confirmed our suspicions about the Red Sox: They could be good, they could be bad. The ingredients are there for either. Boston is nowhere near AL East favoritehood, but at 20-to-1, this is ridiculously good value.
Elsewhere, the market doesn’t seem to believe the Mets are going for it. It has the Dodgers fairly accurately priced, but its love for the Cardinals and Cubs, plus its undue respect for the rest of the NL East, has the Mets valuable. They’re valuable on the World Series and division markets too, but their odds to win the pennant are the sweet spot right now.
Pick: Boston to win AL East +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: New York to win NLCS +600. Low confidence.
