Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,776 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Our MLB futures portfolio effort continues, and if you’re new to this, what we’re doing is investing 520 units over the course of the regular season (with 520 more units in reserve for hedging and the postseason) in an effort to get our all-time results back to a positive average return. We have our strongest history in MLB futures, hitting on a lot of Nationals picks in 2019 and plays across the board last year, with only a small loss in 2020.
We’ll have motorsports picks for the weekend today, too. Those are below.
World Series
The Padres are the perfect bounce-back candidate. Their roster isn’t really *that* different from 2020’s, when they were among baseball’s best teams, and their crash and burn last year had all the hallmarks of a team that lost motivation once things went too far south. On paper, they’re the third-best team in the National League, and even if you assign them worse than a 1-in-16 championship probability (which is what you’d expect from a team favored in the Wild Card Series but not favored in the NLDS), there’s space before you get to 1-in-21, which is what’s needed to justify this. Realistically, it’s closer to that 1-in-16 number, especially considering the Padres will be aggressive buyers at the deadline if they’re in the race.
The Phillies will also likely be buyers, and they stand to benefit from any calamities which befall the Mets, such as injuries to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, which have already happened. Even if the Mets do make the playoffs, there’s space for the Phils, who on paper hold the advantage over the Cardinals and Giants for the sixth NL spot. It’s tight, and there’s so much baseball to be played, but this is one to grab while it’s there.
Pick: San Diego to win +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +3000. Medium confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 (Martinsville)
Martin Truex is the favorite here, but his odds (5-to-1) are just a little too short to provide value. His teammate, Kyle Busch, is valuable, and we’ve got three longshots as well. Allmendinger managed to finish second at Martinsville back in 2016, and around that same time, Austin Dillon cracked the top five twice. Neither should have an entirely noncompetitive car tomorrow night, though each will have a long night ahead of them. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski continues to struggle, but his car was better this past weekend than it’s been, and his experience and success at Martinsville is just too much to pass up.
Pick: Kyle Busch to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Brad Keselowski to win +3300. Low confidence.
Pick: Austin Dillon to win +6600. Low confidence.
Pick: A.J. Allmendinger to win +12500. Low confidence.
IndyCar: Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach
While we’re longshot heavy everywhere else, we’re in on most of the favorites here. Rossi’s the only one outside that category, and he won at Long Beach in both 2018 and 2019, albeit with a different team, I believe. Still, good opportunity for him here, and good opportunity for us.
Pick: Colton Herta to win +500. Low confidence.
Pick: Josef Newgarden to win +700. Low confidence.
Pick: Scott Dixon to win +800. Low confidence.
Pick: Alexander Rossi to win +1600. Low confidence.
Formula 1: Australian Grand Prix
Pérez and Hamilton are each reasonable plays at these odds, the former because of the car and the latter because of the driver. Neither has performed exceptionally well in the first two practices, but you figure each will be in the mix on Sunday (late Saturday night, here in the states). As for Bottas and Vettel, the chances are near-zero, especially with Vettel’s car unable to even make it on the track in the second practice, but at 125-to-1 and 1,000-to-1, for the guys who have combined to win the last three races here? Yes, the teams are different, but if the race falls apart—as a few F1 races do each season—these two are familiar enough with the circuit to conceivably be around the front of the pack. 1,000-to-1 doesn’t require much probability to take.
Pick: Sergio Pérez to win +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton to win +2800. Low confidence.
Pick: Valtteri Bottas to win +12500. Low confidence.
Pick: Sebastian Vettel to win +100000. Low confidence.
