Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,814 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got two MLB futures and one MLB pick. For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets this year, the sample is small, but things are going well. We’re 5–3, we’re up 1.45 units, we’re up 18%. That 18% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice little eight days.
ALCS
There’s narrow positive value on the Yankees today, so we’ll gladly add them to our mix. They should be the AL favorites, and it’s always nice to have something on a favorite.
Beyond them, we’re putting our second play of the year on the Rangers, making them our first team with multiple futures. We have them in the AL West, and we like them here too. The thing happening with the Rangers is three things, really. The first is that the Mariners are overvalued. They are not as good on paper as they finished last year, even though they were a young team that looked to be on the rise. The second is that the Astros are probably a little overvalued as well. They look like a steamroller based on the last six seasons or however many it’s been when they’ve won the West, but every franchise eventually needs to reset, and we may be seeing something of that here. Houston’s still really good, but they aren’t an automatic division champion like they’ve been.
The third is bigger, and that’s simply that the Rangers—and this is true of the Angels as well—are pretty good. They’re highly dependent upon a few guys, so injuries are a bigger risk for them, but the roster is solid. They’ve been aggressive in free agency, and it’s paying off. It should be a fun season in Arlington.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +425. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas to win +2500. Medium confidence.
Washington @ Colorado
MacKenzie Gore’s first start of the season came with a red flag, which is that he walked four batters in fewer than six innings of work. At Coors Field, though, that’s not necessarily the worst thing to do, and given Atlanta only put the ball in play on just more than half their plate appearances, one way to interpret this is that Gore is difficult to hit. Looking back to last year, roughly 35% of his batters faced ended up striking out or walking, which is a little higher than the league average. In other words, that opening start of the year tracks. We’ll ride with the sophomore tonight in Denver.
Pick: Washington +107. Low confidence.
