Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 154 completed bets (there are outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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The CBI Championship Finale was worth a long look tonight, but DePaul’s injuries introduced too much uncertainty. So, today’s picks are only baseball, and there are only two. As always, FanGraphs was used liberally, and as always, lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this.
Boston @ Arizona
Two-thirds of the way through their season-opening West Coast trip, the defending champions are 2-6. Now, they travel to Arizona, where the Diamondbacks aren’t anything special, but are coming off an off day and have Zack Godley on the mound (Godley isn’t going to contend for the Cy Young this year, but you could do worse).
Tonight might be the night Boston turns it around, but with the Diamondbacks listed as the underdog, it’s worth taking the home, rested option.
Pick: Arizona to win +110. Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Milwaukee
Similarly to the Red Sox, the Cubs are off to a bad start on a season-opening road trip. Dissimilarly, they aren’t coming off a World Series title, and as such their frustrations go unnumbed.
Tonight marks the first of what figure to be 19 high-intensity regular season meetings between these neighbors. Jose Quintana makes his first start of the year for the Cubs (he made a relief appearance Saturday, so it isn’t his season debut). Brandon Woodruff is on the mound for the Brewers.
The Brewers’ lineup isn’t available yet, but the Cubs’ is, and Joe Maddon has Quintana in the 9-hole, suggesting he wants his pitcher to go fairly deep into this one. It’d be silly to make too much of this, but it’s interesting in light of the Cubs’ bullpen struggles.
For all their losses, the Cubs’ offense had one of the best season-opening weeks of anybody, so Woodruff will need to pitch well. Obviously, a close game late favors the Brewers, but the oddsmakers seem to be overestimating the degree of the Cubs’ issues.
Pick: Chicago to win +115. Low confidence.
