Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,381 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Miami @ Washington
The thinking behind the discrepancy between this and the moneyline (in a game in which the total is only at eight right now) seems to be that if Jon Lester’s first start back from a coronavirus bout goes badly, it will go really badly. I’m not so sure that’s an abnormally high probability. Pitchers get lit up. It happens. It’s built into the run distribution of games. There’s some opportunity here, especially with the Marlins so short-handed right now.
Pick: Washington +1.5 (-145). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Cincinnati
Jake Arrieta and Wade Miley have both been the beneficiaries of some good luck this year. The wind is blowing out in a hitter’s ballpark.
As far as the moneyline, though—these are two fairly equivalent teams. The Reds are a little better, but Arrieta makes the Cubs better than Miley makes the Reds, so we’re seeing a better version of the Cubs, relative to themselves, than we’re seeing of the Reds relative to themselves.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +108. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 9 (-115). Low confidence.
Baltimore @ Oakland
This line may be dependent upon Matt Olson not playing (glad he’s ok, by the way—he took a ball off his eye yesterday after lining it off the L-screen). If he plays, well, you’ll need better odds to justify betting on the Orioles here.
Pick: Baltimore to win +120. Low confidence.
