Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,330 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Going to the West Coast.
Chicago (AL) @ Anaheim
Last year, the White Sox tied for the fifth-most runs scored in baseball. Their wRC+ was the sixth-highest. They hit the third-most home runs.
Don’t expect a repeat.
When Eloy Jiménez went down, the hype hardly budged. That’s a recipe for overvaluation. As it currently stands, FanGraphs rates the White Sox offense as hardly in the top half of Major League Baseball.
Pick: Anaheim -1.5 (+170). Low confidence.
Houston @ Oakland
Cristian Javier posted a 3.48 ERA over last year’s abridged season.
And a 4.94 FIP.
Expect his numbers this year to be closer to the latter, betraying how significant of a concern Houston’s rotation is looking forward.
Pick: Oakland -1.5 (+150). Low confidence.
