Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -2.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,652 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 2.0% across 670 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
First, picks for tomorrow’s Final Four games. Second, hedges involving tomorrow’s Final Four games. Third, NASCAR picks for Sunday.
Kansas vs. Villanova
If Villanova beats Kansas, it’ll likely be by slowing the Jayhawks down, minimizing possessions, and getting defensive stops. There are more ways for Kansas to beat Villanova, but basically, if this game goes over, it favors KU.
Pick: Parlay – Kansas to win, over 133 (+189). Low confidence.
Duke vs. North Carolina
Both teams should like to run against the other, and the idea of jitters is probably overblown here on a line very close to the KenPom projection all around.
Pick: Over 151.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Now, the hedge:
NCAA Tournament
106 units on this, which gets us to a boat where if Villanova loses, we only drop to an average -3.6% ROI overall, and if Villanova wins, we’re somewhere between -2.6% and -5.9%, with further hedging available at good prices, since our worse scenario then would be Villanova winning in the championship, and Villanova will more likely than not be an underdog if this scenario comes to pass.
Pick: Kansas to make Championship Game -191. Medium confidence. (x53)
NASCAR Cup Series: Toyota Owners 400 (Richmond)
Is this the weekend someone catches the Chevrolets? I’m not sure, but Richmond’s a different track than anything we’ve really seen so far this season, besides possibly Phoenix, and there’s an angle where the driver’s own comfort in the car has probably played a role in getting the odds to this point (see: Hamlin, Denny). A lot of the names we’re in on every week. Will it work out eventually? We’ll see.
Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Joey Logano to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Kyle Busch to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Denny Hamlin to win +1100. Low confidence.
Pick: Kevin Harvick to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Brad Keselowski to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to win +20000. Low confidence.
