Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,301 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re currently relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio, but that’s subject to change.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball, both moneylines and futures, and more for our NBA playoff futures portfolio.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 16–15 so far, up 0.29 units. We had a bad start, but we’ve been hotter lately, going 11–5 over the last week for a 6.46-unit gain.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We plan to place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started on Tuesday with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re placing just one per day.
ALCS
The value’s only the slightest bit positive here. Within a rounding error. But we have nothing on the Orioles, and we won’t get anything better if they keep playing this well. They have overperformed consistently enough over the last season and a half to make us wonder whether there’s really something going on there where they’re better than projections, like there’s sometimes been with the Rays.
Pick: Baltimore to win +600. Medium confidence.
World Series
This is only slightly better, but again, it’s a breadth play. We said a few days ago that if the Mets have a winning record in July, it’s easy to see Steve Cohen dictating they buy aggressively at the deadline. They’re over .500 so far, and if the Dodgers keep slumping the Mets could come out of this weekend with some excitement around them.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +6600. Medium confidence.
Boston @ Pittsburgh
Quinn Priester had a rough MLB entry last season, which is probably part of why these odds aren’t shorter. Projections bake that performance in, though, and he’s been great at AAA in a small sample so far. With the Red Sox nursing a little bit of bullpen fatigue, we like the Pirates to take this opener.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win –110. Low confidence. (Bello and Priester must start.)
Houston @ Washington
MacKenzie Gore’s hot start is flying under the radar a little bit. Some of this might be that he shut down the A’s, but even so, the guy’s been dealing. With the Astros a little all over the place and Justin Verlander a 41-year-old man coming off injury, we like this price for the Nats.
Pick: Washington to win +136. Low confidence. (Verlander and Gore must start.)
Baltimore @ Kansas City
Last (there are a lot of good options today, but we’re stopping at three for fear of getting out over our skis), Dean Kremer’s been struggling and Alec Marsh’s peripherals (xERA, FIP) are outpacing both expectations and his solid ERA. Give us Kansas City to keep a good thing going.
Pick: Kansas City to win +117. Low confidence. (Kremer and Marsh must start.)
Chicago @ Miami
Sacramento @ New Orleans
We have an outstanding future from Tuesday regarding the Play-In Tournament. It was placed at even odds on at least one 9 or 10-seed to play their way into the playoffs. This means we have one unit down tonight on either the Bulls or the Kings winning. If one wins, we get one unit, if one loses, we lose one unit. In three out of the four scenarios, we gain a unit. In the fourth, we lose one.
We’re leveraging that into this parlay on both the Bulls and Kings losing. Our new situation is that in one of the four scenarios, we gain 1.27 units, and in the other three, we lose nothing. We just don’t feel confident enough in the Bulls, and the price on only the Pelicans isn’t long enough for a direct hedge there to make sense. This raises our upside and reduces our downside in exchange for a reduced probability of making anything.
Pick: Parlay – Miami & New Orleans to win (+227). Low confidence.
