Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,356 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Futures odds, as they usually do, come from Bovada due to the lack of an accurate, current Vegas consensus online. But first…
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
The wind’s lightly blowing out in Cincinnati, and Cleveland’s 78 wRC+ is questionably sustainable.
Pick: Over 9 (-110). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Miami
Speaking of questionably sustainable, the Giants are in second place in the West, having won six of their last seven.
The Giants might contend for a wild card spot. With Atlanta scuffling out of the gate and the NL Central a rotting pile of filth and decay, the door’s open.
Still, we don’t know yet that they’re actually that good, and in a pitcher-friendly park, a close game isn’t unlikely.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-145). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ San Diego
Ryan Weathers is making his first career start for the Padres. I’m not sure how long he’ll go and he’s dealing with Walker Buehler across the diamond, but Weathers projects more poorly than the average Padres pitcher, and even if you assume he’ll go as deep as a full-time starter, there’s value here. And that’s without factoring in that Padres’ home games generally don’t see a ton of runs scored.
Pick: San Diego +1.5 (-130). Low confidence.
MLB Futures
The Mets might not have any competition in the East if Max Fried is out for a while. They have the best pitcher on the planet and respectable bats. They’re the safest division champion bet of anyone not named the Los Angeles Dodgers, and they’re available at positive odds.
The Royals, meanwhile, are just off to a good start. They’re probably bad, but Cleveland struggles to hit, the White Sox are missing pieces, the Twins are uninspiring, and the Tigers would make fascinating dinner conversation for nihilists. Factor in that the Royals aren’t conventional, and it’s not that hard to see them hanging around the race and then cashing in some prospect chips at the trade deadline, or ending up in a situation where they win 85 games and that’s enough to win the division by default. Will this happen? I sincerely doubt it. But at 18-to-1? Sign me up.
Pick: New York (NL) to win NL East +140. Medium confidence.
Pick: Kansas City to win AL Central +1800. Low confidence.
