Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,788 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
NASCAR picks below, but first our MLB futures for today. If you’re new to this, what we’re doing is investing 520 units over the course of the regular season (with 520 more units in reserve for hedging and the postseason) in an effort to get our all-time results back to a positive average return. We have our strongest history in MLB futures, hitting on a lot of Nationals picks in 2019 and plays across the board last year, with only a small loss in 2020. Currently, our focus is on breadth—we’re trying to diversify our portfolio in these early weeks to build a broad base. We have picks in on thirteen teams, and as there isn’t currently value on the other seventeen, we’re now going wider with those thirteen—adding division picks for the ones on which we only have postseason plays and vice versa.
NL West
There’s concern about the health of the San Diego pitching staff, with Blake Snell going to the IL, but just a couple weeks ago the Padres had so much starting pitching they were able to flip Chris Paddack in a deal that upgraded their bullpen to be among the best in the game. Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea, and Yu Darvish are their top three, Snell and Mike Clevinger each might still contribute, there’s upside with Nick Martinez, MacKenzie Gore, and Ryan Weathers, and Dinelson Lamet’s still out there in the bullpen. If this team can just hang around until Fernando Tatís Jr. returns, they’ll be a formidable foe, and they have enough big chips in their prospect stack to make a play for a slugging first baseman when the time is right, should that be the move. Josh Bell? Look at apartments in San Diego, friend.
Pick: San Diego to win +325. Medium confidence.
AL East
The Rays always fuck up the AL East market because they look mediocre on paper and then, well, they’re the Rays. But for as accustomed to them overperforming as we’ve gotten, a reminder is sometimes useful that this isn’t actually an annual thing they do. They’ve done it three straight times, yes, winning 96 in 2019, 100 last year, and the equivalent of 108 in 2020 (yes, it was short, but they still won two-thirds of their games), but in the five years before that, the Rays averaged 79 wins per year. The last three are more indicative than the preceding five, but this isn’t a franchise to which the numbers don’t at all apply, and right now the market’s so scared of underestimating them that they’re leaving a lot of room on the Yankees, who stand to be aggressive as hell in the trade market because all the pressure in baseball’s on Brian Cashman.
Take the Rays seriously, but don’t take the rest of the division lightly by extension.
Pick: New York to win +250. Medium confidence.
***
NASCAR Cup Series: Food City Dirt Race (Bristol)
Sunday night dirt racing.
There isn’t great precedent here, because the dirt race is so new and unusual. A lot of weight is being given to Christopher Bell’s dirt career and Kyle Larson’s excellence on dirt (and everywhere), but the odds have gotten so short on those two in a race that appears quite random (there were nine or ten DNF’s last year and a lot more cars limping to the finish line) that they appear more like bait than anything else. You’re not going to get a high-probability driver here at good value, but there are four we like:
Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps last year in this race’s main event. He’s a veteran driver, and he has among the lowest odds of any playoff regular.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. didn’t lead a lap last year, but he finished second, and his brand of physical racing and the nothing-to-lose/everything-to-gain position his career’s in create big incentives for bumping if the opportunity presents itself late.
Daniel Suárez led quite a few laps last year and finished in the top five in all three stages. Maybe that was luck, but maybe he got a feel for driving a stock car on this surface.
Finally, Erik Jones finished in the top ten in stages two and three, working his way up from starting the race 24th. Quietly a very good performance, and at these odds? He, like Stenhouse, has little to lose.
We’ll see. It’s not a high-probability portfolio, but it has a little bit of breadth and some good upside. This is for entertainment, after all.
Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to win +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Daniel Suárez to win +2200. Low confidence.
Pick: Erik Jones to win +5000. Low confidence.
