Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,820 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Four picks today across MLB futures, our daily MLB play, and our third NBA future of the postseason. Here’s the context.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 10–5, we’re up 4.50 units, we’re up 30% (the average line on our winners has been -105). That 30% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice couple weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
NL West
Earlier this week, we got in on a similar play to this one, if not the exact same odds. It wasn’t enough to make the Padres a profitable route for us in the NL West, but this changes that, so even though the value’s low, we’ll take it because it’s positive.
Pick: San Diego to win +120. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Our second play on the Brewers this season is also our second postseason play on them, with the other coming in the World Series market. We’re seeing the Brewers oddly undervalued in the postseason relative to the regular season. We’d expect the opposite with them, given the strength at the front end of their rotation.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1100. Medium confidence.
Anaheim @ Boston
We don’t have a ton of confidence in Tanner Houck, and the atmosphere around the Red Sox is rather negative right now, but that seems to be overborn in the market. No long explanation here—the numbers line up, Houck has high upside, and even with the Rays doing Rays things yesterday afternoon to them, Boston kept its bullpen fresh.
Pick: Boston to win +101. Low confidence. (Sandoval and Houck must start.)
NBA Finals
It’s early to be placing a second future on a team (we already have Denver in the West), but we still think the Nuggets are undervalued, and their line would be the most affected by an upset tonight. We’ll take this while it’s here.
Pick: Denver to win +1000. Low confidence.
